Constraining International Human Trafficking: A Network Analysis

Abstract

Scholars have long argued that transnational human trafficking networks are marked by a dense set of alternative routes connecting sources to destination countries through any number of transit countries. This results in a geographical structure that is highly resilient to policy and enforcement efforts to constrain the trafficking business. I use Social Network Analysis, together with a content analysis of the country narratives in the US State Department Traffic in Persons Report, to model that structure in order to shed light on the puzzle of network resiliency. The model both simulates the relative flow of trafficking across this network and permits the identification of systemic vulnerabilities that can be exploited to constrain the network. I propose a strategy of targeting those choke points, or bottlenecks, that reduce the likelihood of a robust response. I test this strategy against a hot spot strategy that targets those connections with the highest likelihood of victims moving along them and find that the bottleneck strategy is more effective in reducing the total volume of trafficking. Moreover, it is also more efficient, denying traffickers the flexibility to re-route a greater percentage of victims along paths chosen for interdiction.